Unexpected judgements of one judge, pair by pair

The comparison-level companion of judge_surprise. Each pair the judge met is oriented to its stronger object (higher consensus location) and given a standardised residual: z < 0 means the stronger object won less than its lead predicts – the judge backed the underdog. Approximate two-sided normal probabilities are adjusted by Holm across matchups meeting min_n. A surprise is an eligible matchup with a negative residual whose adjusted probability passes the level represented by flag_z. The fitted model must have converged. An adequately sampled matchup with unavailable residual inference remains in the adjustment family. Locations within \(10^{-10}\) logits are treated as tied: neither object is called stronger, the two-sided residual probability remains descriptive and in the Holm family, and surprise is false. A tied row is oriented toward its non-negative residual for display only.

Usage

judge_pair_surprise(fit, judge, min_n = 1L, flag_z = 1.96)

Arguments

fit

A paired-comparison fit from btl with judges.

judge

The judge to profile.

min_n

Pairs met fewer times are shown but never flagged.

flag_z

Absolute normal-residual threshold defining the familywise flagging level; 1.96 corresponds to an adjusted two-sided probability of approximately 0.05.

Value

A list of class "rasch_btl_judge_pairs": pairs (per matchup: the stronger and weaker object and their locations when tied is false (at a tie these columns only orient the row), the location gap, tie indicator tied, times met n, residual z, approximate p, Holm-adjusted p_adj, the net_winner, and the surprise flag); all_locations; the judge and settings.

Examples

set.seed(1); objs <- LETTERS[1:6]; beta <- setNames(seq(-1.5, 1.5, len = 6), objs)
pr <- t(utils::combn(objs, 2))
d <- data.frame(a = rep(pr[, 1], each = 12), b = rep(pr[, 2], each = 12))
d$judge <- sample(paste0("J", 1:5), nrow(d), TRUE)
d$win <- ifelse(runif(nrow(d)) < plogis(beta[d$a] - beta[d$b]), d$a, d$b)
judge_pair_surprise(btl(d, "a", "b", "win", judge = "judge"), "J1")
#> Judge J1: 40 comparisons over 15 matchups
#> No matchup went against the consensus beyond noise.